This yr, nevertheless, Florida appears to be like to tackle added significance. The end result in Florida may assist decide whether or not Election Night time turns into Election Week and even probably Election Month.
The state additionally has a protracted historical past of voting by mail. About 30% of the vote in 2016 was forged by mail.
So long as the vote just isn’t exceedingly tight in Florida, we’ll have a very good indication of who has gained the Sunshine State on Election Night time.
This yr, it is fairly clear that Trump has only a few paths to the White Home with out successful Florida. It is attainable, nevertheless it is not actually lifelike.
Alternatively, Biden has a lot of methods to win with out Florida. His best path (the states Hillary Clinton gained in 2016 and Arizona, Michigan, Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district and Wisconsin) and his second best path (the Clinton states plus Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania) do not depend on Florida.
Put one other method, Biden’s very more likely to win if he takes Florida. Even when we have now to attend for the ballots to be counted in different states for Biden to formally get to 270 electoral votes, there’s solely a minimal probability Trump takes the election.
If Biden loses Florida, we’ll doubtless should see what occurs within the Nice Lake (Rust Belt) battlegrounds to have a very good understanding of the last word end result.
We may very well be ready a protracted whereas for these Nice Lake battleground state outcomes to change into clear.
Not like Florida, the result within the Nice Lake battlegrounds will not be recognized for days due to mail-in voting.
It is easy to think about Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin getting overwhelmed with what’s anticipated to be a crush of absentees.
The important thing for not realizing who has gained on Election Night time is that these absentee ballots, at this level, look way more more likely to be Democratic than Republican votes. In all three states, polls point out that Democrats are a minimum of twice as more likely to say as Republicans to say they will be casting an absentee poll.
It is conceivable that Trump leads in votes which are counted by Election Night time in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Then Biden finally wins, as he chips away at that margin as extra absentee votes are counted.
Keep in mind, a vote is a vote regardless of how it’s forged or when precisely it’s counted.
If Biden wins Florida, such counting within the Nice Lake battlegrounds would doubtless be extra of a tutorial train when it comes to realizing who has gained the election.
If Biden loses Florida, the eyes of the nation will watch because the Nice Lake battleground ballots are counted.